Recruit ratios: ACC Coastal has 117 blue-chippers. Miami, North Carolina lead (2024)

Bud Elliott has been compiling Blue-Chip Ratios since 2013.

The concept isn’t rocket science. The teams who recruited the highest number of four- and five-star recruits in the four cycles leading into the season usually go on to win the national title, Elliott contends.

His research — using the 247Sports Composite rankings — has been backed on the field by Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Clemson and Ohio State since the college football playoff began in 2014. Each of those title teams had a better than 52 percent blue-chip recruiting ratio.

Back in July, Elliott identified 15 schools that recruited and signed more blue-chip recruits than non-blue-chip recruits over the past four cycles for the upcoming 2022 season.

Clemson and Miami were the two ACC schools on the list, along with Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU, Florida and Auburn from the SEC; Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State from the Big Ten; Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12, and Oregon from the Pac-12. Notre Dame was the lone independent.

Elliott’s list is an excellent resource. But with how much roster turnover there is day-to-day with transfers, blue-chip ratios change. The list of teams whose 85-man scholarship rosters feature at least 50 percent blue-chip talent (upon research conducted by The Athletic using 247Sports’ database) is actually 11 — with Michigan, Miami, LSU and Auburn trimmed off Elliott’s original list.

If you “trim the fat” further and consider the percentage of true freshmen on the roster of those 11 remaining programs, only three feature rosters with college-experienced blue-chip players higher than 50 percent. It should come as no surprise who those teams are: No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Georgia.

Competing for national titles requires oodles of talent, but winning division titles and conference championships is another story. Few leagues provide better proof than the ACC’s Coastal Division. Before Pittsburgh became the first Coastal team to win the conference crown since Virginia Tech in 2010, all seven teams in the Coastal took turns winning the division from 2013-2019.

Over that stretch, North Carolina was the only Coastal team that had better recruiting classes than Miami. Yet, the Hurricanes managed to win the division only once (2017). Part of the reason was the high level of attrition the program underwent with some of its top recruits.

Miami still has the most talented team on paper in the Coastal heading into this season (32 more blue-chip recruits than defending champion Pittsburgh).

ACC fans know the best blue-chip ratio doesn’t necessarily determine who wins the always-wacky Coastal race, but here’s a deeper look at the top-10 recruits on each team in the division, their status entering the season and how recruiting more blue-chips is going in the 2023 cycle.

Miami

Blue-chips: 40 (10 true freshmen).

Blue-chip 2023 commitments: Nine among 17 commitments in the ninth-ranked class in the 247Sports Composite.

Breakdown: It’s no surprise the Hurricanes have the highest blue-chip ratio in the Coastal. What would be different is if Miami put the talent to use and won the division.

Of the 10 players on this list, seven of them play defense and three are returning starters: cornerback Tyrique Stevenson and safeties James Williams and Avantae Williams. Defensive tackle Leonard Taylor and edge rusher Chantz Williams should be in the defensive rotation with them.

The other two young defensive players on this list — edge rushers Cyrus Moss and Nyjalik Kelly — have bright futures but are likely to see playing time only on the back end of the rotation or in garbage time.

Quarterback Jake Garcia is expected to serve as the backup to Tyler Van Dyke, the 2021 ACC rookie of the year.

Tight end Jaleel Skinner, whom coach Mario Cristobal swiped from former boss Nick Saban at Alabama, could find a role as a backup to Will Mallory and Elijah Arroyo in two-tight-end sets.

Clemson transfer Frank Ladson has had mixed reviews in camp (he drops too many balls) but is expected to be part of the rotation.

North Carolina

Blue-chips: 33 (10 true freshmen).

Blue-chip 2023 commitments: Six among 17 commitments in the 20th-ranked class.

Breakdown: The Tar Heels have had more players drafted than any ACC team including Clemson over the past two seasons, and Mack Brown’s last three recruiting classes finished 14th, 14th and 11th. So there’s plenty of talent coming in and out of Chapel Hill.

We’ll get to see a lot of Mack Brown’s young new weapons on offense this season.

Among them: Quarterback Drake Maye, who was named North Carolina’s starter on Monday, receiver Andre Greene Jr. and running back George Pettaway — the second-highest-ranked running back recruit to sign with the Tar Heels since 2000.

Slot receiver Josh Downs is the top offensive player on the team. He earned first-team All-ACC honors with a program-record 101 catches for 1,335 yards and eight touchdowns last season.

Offensive tackle Zach Rice and defensive lineman Travis Shaw are two of the top three highest-ranked recruits to sign with North Carolina since 2000. Only defensive tackle Marvin Austin — a 2011 second-round pick who played four years in the NFL — was ranked higher.

Rice missed some time in fall camp and was named the backup right tackle on Monday. Shaw and Keeshawn Silver are listed as backups to Raymond Vohasek and Kevin Hester at defensive tackle. Silver was on the field for only 11 snaps on the defensive line last season as a true freshman.

William Barnes, a top-50-ranked player in 2018 from the Orlando area, finally made his first career start last season in college at right tackle against Virginia. He’s expected to start at right guard against Florida A&M. He’s played just 444 combined snaps in his four years in Chapel Hill.

Desmond Evans played in 22 games and made four starts for the Tar Heels in his two seasons. He’s expected to start at power end after piling on 35 pounds since his arrival.

Cornerback Tony Grimes started 17 games in his career and earned All-ACC honorable mention last season after finishing fifth in the conference with nine pass breakups.

Georgia Tech

Blue-chips: 17 (3 true freshmen).

Blue-chip 2023 commitments: One among 15 high school commitments in the 54th-ranked class.

Breakdown: It was a bit of a surprise to learn the Yellow Jackets had the third-highest blue-chip ratio in the division. Coach Geoff Collins has tried to bring in as much help as he can through the transfer portal after three consecutive 3-9 seasons. Nine of the top 10 recruits at Georgia Tech arrived via the transfer portal.

Quarterback Jeff Sims is the only non-transfer on the list. He was named the ACC’s rookie of the week three times in 2020 but took a step back in production last season as he battled injuries. He’s the unquestioned leader heading into the season.

Taisun Phommachanh was the backup at Clemson for three years before transferring to Georgia Tech this spring. He has battled former Akron starter Zach Gibson to be Sims’ backup coming out of camp.

Former Alabama offensive lineman Pierce Quick and Clemson offensive lineman Paul Tchio are expected to be starters at guard for the Yellow Jackets.

Quick is the third-highest-rated recruit to end up in The Flats since 2000. Only NFL Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson (five-star, .9902) and outside linebacker Hobie Holiday (four-star, .9791) were ranked higher. Quick played 33 snaps in eight games in three seasons in Tuscaloosa. Tchio appeared in 14 games and made a start last season versus NC State. He has 186 snaps under his belt.

Ex-Alabama defensive lineman Kevin Harris made Bruce Feldman’s preseason Freaks List in 2021. He runs 20 to 21 miles per hour and has a 39-inch vertical leap coupled with 31 bench-press reps of 225 pounds. Last season, Harris appeared in 12 games and totaled six tackles. Harris is the second-highest-ranked defensive line recruit to end up at Georgia Tech behind former ACC defensive player of the year and 2010 first-round pick Derrick Morgan. He should be in the rotation this year.

The other five names on this list are defensive backs. Ex-Notre Dame signee Derrik Allen, who transferred back home in 2020, is the highest-ranked defensive back recruit at Georgia Tech since 2000. He’s played 327 snaps over 19 games with one career start. He made four tackles in 2021 and is locked into a battle for the starting job at strong safety with LaMiles Brooks.

Myles Sims signed with Michigan out of high school but returned home to Atlanta a year later. He has appeared in 29 games with the Yellow Jackets, starting three games last season. He totaled 18 tackles and finished second on the team with four pass breakups and tied for the team lead with two fumble recoveries. He’s expected to be a starter at corner this season.

Virginia Tech

Blue-chips: 10 (3 true freshmen)

Blue-chip 2023 commitments: 18 commitments in new coach Brent Pry’s 36th-ranked class, but all of them are three-stars.

Breakdown: The Hokies have seen a drop-off in elite talent of late. Virginia Tech has signed four five-star recruits since 2000, but none since cornerback Kendall Fuller in 2013.

In the first four seasons after Frank Beamer retired at the end of the 2015 season, the Hokies finished 42nd (2016), 26th (2017), 24th (2018), 26th (2019) in the 247Sports Composite recruiting standings — maintaining top-30 recruiting classes the program was accustomed to under its legendary coach. Those classes led to nine players being drafted over the last three season, including a pair of first-round picks in 2021.

But the Hokies’ last three signing classes under former coach Justin Fuente weren’t exactly stellar, ranking 76th (2020), 44th (2021) and 35th (2022). The highest-ranked recruit from Virginia on the Hokies’ 2023 commitment list, cornerback Cameren Fleming, is the 20th-ranked player in the state. Penn State has commitments from four of the seven available blue-chip recruits in the state.

You can divide the top 10 recruits on Virginia Tech’s roster into three categories: four young guys, four vets on defense and two underwhelming four-stars who have yet to do much.

The four veteran defensive starters on the list: linebackers Dax Hollifield and Alan Tisdale, cornerback Chamarri Conner, and defensive lineman TyJuan Garbutt.

Hollifield, the second highest-ranked linebacker recruit to land in Blacksburg since 2000, has been a starter since his freshman season in 2018. He led the Hokies with 92 tackles, 9 1/2 for loss, and 4 1/2 sacks. He earned All-ACC honorable mention honors last season.

Conner has earned All-ACC honorable mention two years in a row, starting 37 games over the past three seasons. He finished third on the team with 85 tackles last season and had two forced fumbles, an interception, two sacks and five pass breakups.

Tisdale started 13 games last season and finished fourth on the team with 84 tackles and 7 1/2 for loss.

Garbutt, who ranks in the top 50 among all the recruits Virginia Tech has signed since 2000, produced 23 tackles, 3 1/2 sacks and two forced fumbles last season playing mostly on the edge.

Pittsburgh

Blue-chips: 8 (2 true freshmen).

Blue-chip 2023 commitments: One among 17 commitments in the 38th-ranked class.

Breakdown: Pat Narduzzi didn’t win last year’s ACC title with a bunch of blue-chip recruits.

The two lowest-rated recruits on the roster are two of the best players for the Panthers: linebacker SirVocea Dennis, a two-star recruit out of Syracuse, N.Y., ranked No. 3,130 in the 2019 cycle, and receiver Konata Mumpfield, an Akron transfer who was ranked a three-star athlete and the No. 2,672 in the 2020 cycle.

Even standout defensive linemen Calijah Kancey (No. 850 in the 2019 cycle) and Habakkuk Baldonado (No. 885 in the 2018 cycle) didn’t get much respect coming out of high school.

Of the top 10 recruits on the roster, running back Israel Abanikanda is probably the most well-known. Abanikanda led Pitt with 651 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 123 carries last season and was the top receiver out of the backfield with 24 catches for 197 yards and a score.

Three of Pitt’s top-five-ranked recruits arrived via the transfer portal from Power 5 schools.

The only one who has carved out a major role is Marcus Minor. He transferred in from Maryland last season and started 13 games at left guard for the Panthers, earning third-team All-ACC honors.

Freshman Ryan Baer is the highest-ranked offensive lineman to sign with Pittsburgh since Alex Boosker in 2014 and is already being tabbed as the next leader of the unit when the five returning starters from last year’s ACC title team depart. Baer is seeing snaps at backup left tackle in camp.

Linebacker Shayne Simon, a Notre Dame grad transfer, is the highest-ranked recruit on Pittsburgh’s roster. Pitt is counting on Simon to play plenty at the money spot alongside Dennis and Bangally Kamara at linebacker.

Four of Pitt’s highest-ranked recruits are defensive linemen.

He’s not the highest-ranked recruit among them, but Dayon Hayes is probably the readiest to break out in a bigger role this coming season. The pass-rushing end should be a bigger part of the rotation behind projected starters Deslin Alexandre and Baldonado. Hayes was pretty good last year, totaling 16 tackles, 7 1/2 tackles for loss and two sacks in 257 snaps off the bench.

Elliot Donald, the nephew of three-time NFL defensive player of the year Aaron Donald, a former Pittsburgh All-American defensive tackle, is the highest-ranked defensive lineman on the roster. But he played a total of five snaps in his only appearance against New Hampshire last season as a true freshman. With Kancey, Devin Danielson, Tyler Bentley and David Green in front of him, it will be hard for Donald to carve out a huge role in 2022. Next year, though, could be the year.

Virginia

Blue-chips: 7 (1 true freshman)

Blue-chip 2023 commitments: None among 12 commitments in the 61st-ranked class.

Breakdown: The Cavaliers have signed only two top-40-ranked classes (2019 and 2021) since putting together four in a row from 2011-14. Safety Quin Blanding and defensive tackle Andrew Brown were the last five-star recruits to sign with Virginia, and they were part of the 2014 class.

Of the seven blue-chip recruits on Virginia’s roster, three arrived via the transfer portal.

Of those, Keytaon Thompson has been the only major contributor at the college level thus far. Thompson was a star quarterback and the Gatorade player of the year in Louisiana when he signed with Mississippi State out of high school. Now, he’s a freakish receiver talent on the Biletnikoff Award preseason watch list who led Virginia with 78 catches for 990 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 247 yards and four scores.

Cody Brown is the third-highest-ranked running back recruit to sign with the program since 2000. Based on what coach Tony Elliott told local reporters last week, Brown, a Miami transfer, is probably sitting behind senior Perris Jones (an unranked recruit out of high school in 2018) in the pecking order for carries coming out of camp. Brown had 34 rushes for 139 yards last season and two touchdowns with the Hurricanes.

Logan Taylor, a native of Nova Scotia, is one of five sophom*ores vying to play in offensive line coach Garett Tujague’s complete revamp of the unit after losing six starters off last year’s team. Taylor played 19 snaps on special teams last season but is reportedly a favorite to start at offensive tackle opposite junior Jonathan Leech. Taylor was among three potential starters who missed Virginia’s first fall scrimmage with an injury. Noah Josey, a 2020 Under Armour All-American, is another talented sophom*ore fighting to work his way into the offensive rotation.

Linebacker Hunter Stewart started five games last season, including the last two at middle linebacker, and finished ninth on the team with 37 tackles, 3 1/2 for loss, and two sacks. But he’s been a second-team player so far in camp behind two-time All-ACC selection Nick Jackson and Josh Ahern.

Top 2022 recruit Dakota Twitty will miss the season with an ACL injury.

Duke

Blue-chips: 2 (1 true freshman).

Blue-chip 2023 commitments: None among 26 high school players in the nation’s No. 32-ranked class.

Breakdown: It’s not a big surprise Duke has the second-fewest blue-chippers (tied with Wake Forest) among Power 5 schools (Washington State is the only Power 5 team without any). The Blue Devils, a power in basketball, have yet to sign a five-star football recruit in the modern era and have signed only 14 four-star recruits since 2000.

Offensive lineman Jacob Monk and defensive lineman DeWayne Carter have been the most productive thus far.

Monk, the second-highest-rated offensive lineman at Duke in the last 20 years, has been a starter since his arrival. He started 12 games at right tackle as a freshman and Duke’s last 23 games at right guard, earning All-ACC honorable mention last season. He’ll be the starting center in 2022.

Carter, whose father played at Ohio State and uncle played at Notre Dame, was a third-team All-ACC selection in 2021 and has started 13 games at Duke, totaling 49 tackles, 10 1/2 tackles for loss, 5 1/2 sacks and four forced fumbles over 26 games. He’s Duke’s defensive captain and best player up front.

Receiver Eli Pancol has been helpful. Pancol cracked the starting lineup in 2021 and has 47 catches for 565 yards and five touchdowns in 35 career games and 1,112 snaps.

Cornerback Tony Davis is the sixth-highest-rated football recruit to sign with Duke since 2000 — one of 14 four-stars to sign with the program over that span. But he’s appeared in only nine games, playing a grand total of 73 snaps and making three tackles. Coach Mike Elko will try to squeeze more out of Davis this year as he revamps the secondary.

Of the three true freshmen on this list, edge rusher Vincent Anthony Jr. is the only one who could be part of the rotation right away.

(Photo of Leonard Taylor celebrating a stop against Georgia Tech: Samuel Lewis / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)